Doing the Math- Marathon Style

Training is half way done for the flying pig so it is time to start thinking about my goals and race strategy. Time to start visualizing the plan and start working on those mantras that will keep me on pace!

It looks like Cincinatti's course is relatively flat most of the way. The major hills come at you early with miles 5 to 9 being up up up. After that though it is a net decline with a few short climbs mixed in.

Ideally I'd like to run an even split race. Going out too fast this time is not an option but going out too slow sends all kinds of doubts running through my mind about making up time. I can see why so many people take the "put some money in the bank" approach. But I am confident that an even or negative split race is the best plan.

The FIRST training plan I have been using was based on a 7:45 planned marathon pace. That's a 3:23 marathon. My goal is 3:25 which is a 7:49 pace. Hopefully the mental boost from hitting most of the 7:45 pace training will be enough to pull me in under 3:25.

Since there is no 3:25 pace group and I don't want to go out too fast my plan is to go out with the 3:30 group at 8 minute pace for the first 9 miles, let them pull me up the hills before I drop the hammer, so to speak. From there I will have to run 7:41 pace the rest of the way if I want to come in under 3:25.

When I think 7:41 and see it in front of me it terrifies me. It just sounds fast. But I have just had a huge confidence boosting 20 miler. My fastest long run in training ever. I have only run 20 miles faster than Sunday twice and that was in Columbus and Boston. And on race day what seems so fast in your head always feels so much easier.

To add to that mental boost I am hoping to get in a race day simulation during one of my following 20 milers. We are going to head down to Cinci to visit relatives and I am hopefully going to get out onto the course for miles 6-26. I may modify that to 5-25 in order to run all the hills. My plan is to run the same way I plan on running the marathon with miles 5-9 at 8:30 pace and 8:15 pace the last 16-17. I am toying with actually trying to do planned marathon paces instead of the paces FIRST has down for that 20, but I am worried running too fast now will burn me out.

It would be nice to get in a 10k race soon to see how I stack up against those trendy prediction calculators but I think I should just have faith in the training plan and stick with it.

These are the splits I am going to keep in mind marathon day so I am going to start memorizing them now

9 miles: 1:12
13.1 miles: 1:43:30
20 miles: 2:36:21
23 miles: 2:59:34
26.2: 3:24:09

I don't want to be a slave to the watch but if I am close to 7:41 every mile after 9 and I am close to these times I will know sub 3:25 is achieveable.

I have several longer tempo runs planned closer to race day at marathon pace so I am sure come May 6th this pacing plan will feel perfect.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

There are no hills in my neighborhood. :(

Sounds like a good plan, though. Off-topic, but do you know if there are any special techniques for running in an earthquake?

Kim said...

That's an excellent idea to get down to Cinti to run the hill section. The hills are probaly "bad" to folks that never run hills, but you do get plenty of hill work outs in.

mouse said...

honestly, the hills are really nothing to worry about. you've got a bit of a gradual climb and the start of them and then a bit of a steep grade for a little while, but from there it's all downhill (with, as you said, a few hills thrown in in the second half, but nothing significant).

a negative split is MORE than doable for you. I ran my fastest half - at the time - on the second half of the Pig course.

so excited to see how you do!

Iron Jayhawk said...

Your race plan makes me excited--and dizzy! :)

You'll have a great race...I can feel it!

Lloyd said...

Hey, don't be intimidated by that hill. After mile 9.5, this really is a fast course. Get to mile 10 intact, and you have a good race to look forward to!

Keep it going, E.

RunBubbaRun said...

A very well planned marathon strategy, I must say. The long distance stuff is alot about the mental side also. You seem to have that pretty well covered as well.

Time to "drop the hammer" in a couple of weeks.

JenC said...

I have faith in you chica! Hills? Fogettabout it - you've got what it takes - I know it!

Steven said...

Very well thought out plan, e.
You'll do fine...just keep doing what you've been doing.

The (IRON) Clyde said...

You're right about race day...always seems like if I try to keep up the pace I can do at races in my training runs, it's almost impossible...must be all the excitement and adrenaline.

Triseverance said...

I love the planning and it is interesting to read given that my goal for a fall marathon is 3:25.

Negative splits are tough in a marathon but if you go out slow it is toatally doable.

Good luck!

Anonymous said...

yeah yeah yeah... but when are you going to jungle jim's?!?

Donald said...

This is just me, but my strategy has always been the other way around - gain a little bit (but not too much) time in the first half, because I almost never feel like lowering the hammer in the final miles. It sounds like you've thought it all out, though, so now you just have to execute.

Good luck!

Janet Edwards said...

Great post. I have every confidence you will do wahtever you set your mind to. You have great hill training, focused training, and we all know you have no trouble going long.

I love thinking strategies!!!