So the highlight of the bagel shop talk this morning was to predict my marathon time in two weeks. Sounds like I'm one of the only ones aiming high for myself so I thought I'd do some quick math to see if my goal was in line with the training I have done or if I am delusional. I looked at the numbers and I still believe my goal is achievable.
A quick comparison (this is why training logs are useful tools for OCD runners). This year at Boston I averaged 43 miles per week the 10 weeks leading up to Boston Taper (2 weeks). This year for Richmond I have averaged 59 miles per week leading up to taper. In the spring I ran a 41:16 10k 2 weeks before the marathon. And this fall I ran a 39:45 4 weeks before the marathon (No 10k races in town this morning). I used the equations listed by this site to predict my marathon time for Richmond: http://mysite.verizon.net/jim2wr/id70.html. Based on the formula for 60 mpw if you multiply my recent 10k time by 4.75-4.85 my time should be between 3:08:49 and 3:12:47. According to the site when I was averaging 43 miles per week my multiplier should have been 5.0 to 5.3 (3:26:24 to 3:38:47) but it actually was 4.91 (3:22:50). I am not sure if that is because of my base or because I just run better than the average on less training. Either way the numbers are looking pretty good to me. (I'll be checking out the numbers versus my other marathons to see if I can find a trend!)
What is hilarious to me is that for some people I will never run enough miles and for others they can't believe how many I am running. I honestly feel that I did not run to my potential in Boston this year, I didn't feel strong and my quads were shot very early in the race. I truly believe that I am capable of much better. I aimed high with the training mileage for this race and I fell a little short of my goal, but the past two weeks I have felt the speed and the strength that I have built up and I know I am ready for a huge PR. A 16 mpw swing in training is huge, even if it is less than I intended. And the quality of my key workouts this training period have been great. I have been so pleased at how well my body has adapted to the hard tempo days and the faster long runs.
My goal is to be strong and smiling as I finish Richmond with a huge marathon PR. I don't need the negativity from inside or out. I've put in the time and it will play out how it plays out. But if I were placing a bet on me for this marathon I'd recommend you bet high on me doing exceptionally well and save the doubting for another day.